Category: Politics

9/11, Iraq War, Katrina, the Financial meltdown….the list goes on. In the final days of his Presidency, Mr. Bush and his team are desperately attempting to shape public opinion with regards to his obviously awful legacy. The latest spin seems to be “At least Bush kept us safe”. Conservative columnist, Peggy Noonan of the WSJ went one step ahead and took a pre-emptive strike at the Obama presidency by saying “Democrats will not want tacked onto the end of that sentence, “unlike Obama.” thereby setting the stage for the next line of Republican attack, god-forbid there be another terrorist attack on the US.

President Bush spent the last eight years making Americans believe that they are terribly unsafe while simultaneously antagonizing the rest of the world and giving them plenty of reasons to retaliate against Americans. Thankfully, the Wall Street meltdown forced Americans (at least 54%) to stop deluding themselves about the importance of safety and focusing instead on their pocket books.  President-elect Obama would be doing Americans (and the world!) a great service if he were to dispel this myth that “we live in a dangerous world” in four years and give other nations less reasons to hate Americans.

For the moment, the love for Obama seems to be virtually endless. When the likes of Karl Rove are “reassured” you gotta really feel the luv! Here is another positive article on Obama’s cabinet picks in the WSJ of all places. President-elect Obama has made a strong start with a virtual “dream team” for his cabinet and little opposition in the media (barring a nervous left). It remains to be seen how he can translate this all round love to some definitive results. Meanwhile, the man on the way out has an outside chance to add, “I saved GM” to his otherwise guaranteed woeful legacy.

It is a widely accepted rumor that Senator Hillary Clinton is being considered for Secretary of State. There have been follow on rumors that she is ready to accept the job. Meanwhile, there has been no shortage of analysis over whether this was the right move or not on the part of the President-elect. Some argue that their personal animosities from the primary days are unlikely to make her effective on the job. While this argument has its merits here are more than a few points why this is in fact a brilliant move on so many fronts.

President-elect Obama won the election on a promise of “change”. The Democratic party was torn between support for Senator Obama and backing Senator Hillary Clinton. Firstly, getting her on his cabinet goes a long way in uniting the Democratic party. By picking her over others (like John Kerry who apparently aspired for the job), President-elect Obama makes a definitive move to unite the Democratic party and appease those who were disappointed with Senator Clinton’s failed run for the candidacy. To govern effectively President-elect has to forge a unified Democratic party. This offer is a perfect first step in this direction.

Next, this move does indicate (to whatever extent possible) that President-elect Obama does not harbor any long-term animosity towards Senator Clinton. Further, offering her the coveted post of Secretary of State signals that he is willing to share the success of his victory by giving her a fairly independent platform to succeed in a more defining role on the world stage, next best perhaps to being the American President in this day and age. It is well known that VP elect Joe Biden is a foreign affairs wonk in his own right, and would have hoped to influence foreign policy in his role as VP. Letting Mrs. Clinton run foreign policy is a clear sign that President-elect Obama respects and trusts her ability to deliver and is willing to go the extra mile to accommodate her in his cabinet even at the expense of making other unhappy (Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and others).

Now, let us view this from Senator Clinton’s perspective. There is no question that she is an accomplished and capable woman who came “closest” to occupying one of the most powerful offices on the planet. She gave Senator Obama more than a tough fight for the Democratic nomination. With age not her side, the odds of her becoming President some day (while still not impossible) appear far-fetched at this point at best.

Sadly, despite her strengths she has spent her entire career in the shadows of her husband Bill Clinton. By taking on the role of Secretary of State, she has the opportunity to break free from her husband’s shadow and live up to her thus far seemingly untapped potential. This is easily a more effective and promising role than remaining in the US Senate. Having spent a life time supporting her husband accomplish his political aspirations (not to mention tolerating his numerous personal foibles), the role of Secretary State would be a terrific opportunity for her to make her mark especially at a time when America’s leadership around the world is questionable and there is no end to hatred towards America the world over.

The biggest foreign policy challenge for the last several decades has been the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Bill Clinton failed to achieve Middle East peace despite his valiant efforts towards the end of his tenure. By taking on the role of Secretary of State, Senator Clinton has the dual challenge of accomplishing what her husband strived for (but failed to achieve) as well as repairing the damage done by the Bush administration. Can it get any better from a challenge point of view for someone who aspired to be President and failed?

All in all, its a brilliant move on President-elect Obama’s part to offer her the job. For Senator Clinton, its an opportunity of a life-time over wallowing in the US Senate.

The Republicans appear to have hit the panic button. There are plenty of signs of this. Some are having nightmares imagining President Obama in charge.

The Republican talk radio circuit seems to have only Ayers to talk about. Sean Hannity is getting desperate.

The McCain team seems to have completely run out of ideas that they had to resurrect the Ayers issue  — something the Clintons tried and failed to gain traction on. As their ship appears to be sinking McCain and Palin are grabbing Ayers for survival. Cindy McCain is blaming Obama for endangering her son in Iraq!

Check out Charles Krauthammer saying that McCain should have jumped on the Ayers association sooner and that the ad in North Carolina was not racsict!

McCain has only himself to blame for the bad timing. He should months ago have begun challenging Obama’s associations, before the economic meltdown allowed the Obama campaign…

McCain had his chance back in April when the North Carolina Republican Party ran a gubernatorial campaign ad that included the linking of Obama with Jeremiah Wright. The ad was duly denounced by the New York Times and other deep thinkers as racist.

(btw, notice the “should have” tone. Is this race over?)

David Brooks wants to return to the drawing board of conservative ideology. Check out his piece in NY Times today — plenty of could have, should have and other soul searching comments.

This year could have changed things. The G.O.P. had three urbane presidential candidates. But the class-warfare clichés took control. Rudy Giuliani disdained cosmopolitans at the Republican convention. Mitt Romney gave a speech attacking “eastern elites.” (Mitt Romney!) John McCain picked Sarah Palin.

Senator McCain’s performance in the second debate simply didn’t help his campaign regain momentum. Now it appears to be on a free fall.

Revving up the base is hardly a sensible strategy at this late stage when it might make more sense to reach out to independents and undecided voters.

The Democrats must be wishing that it were November 4 tomorrow!

The first debate was an overall disappointment. As I think back to the debate, the only lines I recall are “Senator Obama doesn’t understand” and “John is right”. Despite the change in debate format where each participant could question the other, neither candidate  chose to avail of this opportunity. So much for modern day debates.

As always the first question that pops to mind after a debate is “Who won?”. The truth is, its hard to say because there was no real winner. Firstly, there was hardly any “debate” so to speak. It was one moderator and two individuals answering questions! Secondly, neither of them had any memorable lines that evoked any laughter or drove home a point.

Putting the debate in context of the state of the race adds a slightly different perspective when analyzing the event for winners and losers. Going into the debate Senator McCain’s campaign was in a shaky state with his “campaign suspension”, “backing out of the debate” and other negative news. Had he stumbled in the debate, he could have been hurt beyond recovery. Considering this backdrop  he did well enough so as not to damage his standing in the race. As for Senator Obama, he needed come across as knowledgeable and someone capable of being President. While Senator Obama did very well to appear calm, composed and Presidential, he did little to question or attack his opponent. In fact, it appears as though the “community organizer” in him does not permit forceful disagreement. This has been a consistent pattern with Senator Obama beginning with the primaries where he rarely went after his opponents. Perhaps it was a tactical ploy to avoid being seen as as the “angry black man”. In any case, this approach made the debate that much more boring. His responses were more like “lectures” than pointed, deliberate, tactful quips. Besides, he could use a sense of humor .

As for John McCain, he came across as someone who deeply dislikes his opponent. He never once looked at him when answering any questions or referring to him. In fact, he barely made eye contact with Senator Obama even during the initial hand-shake. He consistently referred to his opponent as Senator Obama (while Obama referred to him as “John”) more than a few times. His irritation (and to some extent grumpiness) was palpable at various points in the debate. He deliberately threw in names of foreign heads (referring to Zardari as Kadari and struggling to say “Ahmadinejad”), and of course mentioned his POW experience (which he often he reminds people he that he does not like to talk about!), and the boring  “I was not voted Miss congeniality” line (he mentioned this twice).

The only hope for more exciting follow on debates is if McCain falls back further in the polls (as he appears to be doing now) making the debates that much more critical to him. The other scenario is if Senator Obama manages to get under Senator McCain’s skin and trigger his supposed bad temper. Barring these or some untoward events like the release of a new “Osama tape”, the remaining debates promise more of the same. (Aren’t you happy McCain picked Sarah Palin? At least there is something to look forward to in the debates:-)

p.s: The audience was forced to remain silent throughout the debate. This was one of the positives of the debate.

Country First: The partisanship and divisive mindset of the Republican party was evident starting with very theme of this convention. The Country First theme automatically implies that the opponents are not patriotic and don’t put their country first. There is also an implied assumption that only the Republicans put their country first. Ironically, despite John McCain’s desire to distant himself from the President, this theme signifies a continuation of the “you are with us or with the enemy” rhetoric of George Bush.

Since America was attacked under George Bush, is it fair to say he wasn’t putting his country first because he failed to protect America from its enemies? Since the US Government couldn’t protect many of its citizens from Katrina does that mean that George Bush did not put his country first? Maybe its time to define and measure patriotism. Ironically, if Al Qaeda were to have a convention today, it would be very believable that the theme would have been “Islam first”.

Change is Coming: After holding the Presidency for eight years and controlling the Congress for 6 years, the Republicans are now promising change! Are we supposed to believe that Senator McCain after 25 years in Washington can actually bring about change? Isn’t that like saying “Just give us another chance?” Ironically, if John McCain was right when he said “Change is coming” it certainly seems improbable that change of any sort can be in the form of another Republican administration.

Sarah Palin’s Speech: After ridiculing Obama for giving good speeches, it is ironical that Republicans are going “gaga” over Sarah Palin after just one good speech (which was well delivered though high on red meat and low on substance)! It will be interesting to see if she can survive the grilling of the media like Senator Obama has for the last two years.

Bi-partisanship: Senator McCain talks about reaching across the aisle after deriding and ridiculing the Democrats and calling them unpatriotic. How can he possibly expect to work together with the “Old, big-spending, Do nothing, me-first crowd!”? After swerving so far to the right it is ironical that he thinks that he can be non-partisan and reach acceptable middle ground with those on the left.

Top of the ticket: When pressed on Sarah Palin’s lack of experience, Republicans push back saying that its the top of the ticket that really counts. While this might be true to a certain extent, with McCain at 72 years of age and not in the best of health, ironically, the VP matters more than it ever did. Claiming to have more experience than a community organizer does not make Sarah Palin better prepared to be President.

The Maverick: Senator McCain had first been called a maverick because he stood up to his party establishment. Most who called him a maverick have long changed their mind about him because he has recast himself as a traditional conservative Republican after cozying up to the extreme right wing of his party. Ironically, he calls himself a maverick these days more than others do!

The Talk about Freedom: Republicans pride themselves as the champions of freedom around the world (“And as we look to the future never let us forget that – when we are at our best – we are the party that expands Freedom”). Unfortunately, with the Republican base in complete control of the party agenda, it is selective freedom at its worst. A woman is not free to choose while a health care system is all about choices driven by the marketplace. The people of Iraq should be free to choose their leaders while the same does not apply to people in Pakistan (until recently), Palestine or Egypt.

The 36 African Americans: That is the total number of African Americans who attended the Republican convention. What is wrong with this picture? One of the two major parties doesn’t even look like America! The rich are there for their tax cuts while the middle class are there for their guns and pro-life stands. Sadly, the rest count for nothing. Not even to make up the numbers in the crowds. It is a clear sign that the Republican party has drifted too far to the right. Ironically, it does not even try to ensure a smattering of people of color on the convention floor.

John McCain: The most glaring and unfortunate irony is none other than John McCain himself. It is well accepted that Islamic terrorism (a term that McCain co-opted from Rudy Guliani) is a manifestation of the extreme right among Muslims in the world.

Assuming for a moment that terrorism is the number one threat facing America and the world today. The argument that  a former POW and seasoned Senator with a strong independent streak can provide the leadership to rid the world of war and make America safer is a powerful one. To reinforce this thought, Senator McCain himself and the Republicans repeatedly reminded Americans of his POW credentials. He talks about how he was changed forever by his POW experience. Yet he (or his fellow Republicans) didn’t consider it worthwhile to mention Guantanamo and torture in his speech. In fact, his VP pick derided Senator Obama for backing rights for prisoners.

It seems clear, that instead of speaking his mind and being truly worthy of his maverick credentials, Senator McCain pandered and sold out to the extreme right wing of his party in his quest for the Presidency. “Politics first” would have been a more appropriate theme for this convention.

After eight years under George Bush does America need another far right administration? If yes, how would this  be any different than George Bush and why would that be a form of “change”?

p.s: I am not recommending that the next President move to the far left. I am just expressing my concerns of the general direction under John MCCain based on the Republican convention.

Senator Barack Obama agreed to be interviewed by Bill O’Reilly.

Fast-talking, aggressive, cut-and-dry answer seeking, conservative Mr. Bill O’Reilly against the charming, suave, liberal and “nuanced-answer-giving” Obama. How cool is that for an interesting match-up?

The interview is appearing in four parts. Here is the first part that aired on Thurs night. The rest will be aired Mon through Wed of next week.

Obama did very well in this first segment. Firstly, there were no gaffes. Secondly, he appeared calm and collected and withstood the Bill O’Reilly tough talk rather impressively. On the troop surge in Iraq he tactfully defended his stand while admitting that it had worked.

One of his responses that Pakistan was using the funding from the US to prepare for war against India was brilliant for many reasons. Firstly, he is the only visible politician in the US who even pronounces the name “Pakistan” accurately. (most says “Pack” instead of “Pak”). Secondly, its a sign that the man has really done his homework and understands the dynamics of the region far better than others. Most importantly, this is the first time in this entire campaign that “any” of the major candidates have even mentioned India when referring to Pakistan.

The remaining sections should be interesting. Check out Bill’s post interview article. Sounds like the Obama magic has worked on him, at least partially? 🙂

Would Sarah Palin go in for a similar interview with Bill and possibly at one of the other networks?

The first time I saw a picture of Sarah Palin, I must admit I thought it was an ad for eyeglasses! (and I am not making this up). I read that she a was a former Alaska state beauty pageant queen (No offense to Sarah Palin, but here is an example of an American beauty, Miss Teen USA from South Carolina).

Selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate served as a tactical move to counter the media waves being generated by Senator Obama’s impressive acceptance speech last night which was watched by a record 40M people. You clearly have to do something out of the ordinary to counter that kind of media coverage. Senator McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin certainly achieved this purpose. The former beauty queen tipped the media coverage in her favor despite the historic nature and fanfare following the first ever African American candidate’s acceptance of a major parties’ nomination. A case of short term Mission Accomplished for the McCain campaign.

Sarah Palin’s name was hardly mentioned as a likely pick by any of the visible right wing pundits (though there has been an active campaign on the net). Names of Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Bobby Jindal and others were being thrown around for the most part, though the same pundits are racing to fall in love with Ms. Palin now. Senator McCain has helped revive some of his fast-fading maverick image of yester-years with this pick.

Selecting Sarah Palin also appears to be a calculated move to reach out to the Hillary voters. However, it remains to be seen if any of the 18M Hillary voters actually end up voting for the McCain ticket just because of Sarah Palin. Most women Democrats are unlikely to find anything in common with Ms. Palin’s position on issues provided they are willing to look beyond the gender criteria. But again, you are talking of white working class, high school educated women from the mid-western swing states.

Senator McCain has plenty of negatives to deal with from his Veep pick. First and foremost, the whole issue of experience — his opponent Senator Obama’s weakest point — At 72, with age and good health not on his side, and Sarah Palin as his VP running mate, Senator McCain can’t credibly attack his opponent for lack of experience. In fact, one could argue that he has put himself first (and didn’t show good judgment) and not his “country first” by placing a relative newbie one-step away from the Presidency while crying himself hoarse that we are living in the most dangerous of times.

The basic GOP advantage of supposedly being stronger on defense has been completely squandered by this selection. In fact, even the most hardcore right wing conservatives are bound to cringe at the thought of Sarah Palin at the helm of affairs were something to happen to President McCain. (One of the geniuses on Fox was suggesting that Sarah Palin had foreign policy experience because Alaska was close to Russia!)

It remains to be seen how things play out over the next several weeks before the polls.

“She’s not bad looking. She looks like one of those women in the Van Halen videos who takes off her glasses, shakes out her hair, and then all of a sudden, she’s in high heels and a bikini. All of a sudden, I am FOR drilling in Alaska.” –Jimmy Kimmel

Sarah Palin could charm her way to the vice-presidency. Biden might end up appearing mean in the debate with Ms. Palin and could spark of a backlash. Obama could have more Saddleback moments in the upcoming debates. The left wingers could go overboard in their criticism of Palin and it might backfire on the Democrats. Any number of things could happen in a country where Dan Quayle became Vice-Presdent and George Bush got elected twice. Time will tell if McCain took a smart bet or landed himself in a pickle with his Veep pick.

 

The selection of Senator Joe Biden appears to be a pragmatic move, one that is likely to bolster Senator Obama’s chances of a victory. Experience, ability to reach out to the white working class (Hillary voters) and foreign policy expertise — seem to have been the key reasons for selecting Biden. The conventional wisdom is that even if the VP does not hugely help the ticket, he or she shouldn’t hurt the ticket. At the moment Biden is unlikely to hurt the ticket provided he can avoid any major gaffes over the next several weeks. On the other hand, it does appear as though he can help the ticket particularly on Obama’s perceived weaknesses. Obama’s choice of Biden is akin to Kennedy’s choice of Lyndon Johnson – the seasoned hand behind a young, charismatic chief.

The choice of the VP candidate gives voters an insight into how the aspiring Presidential candidate thinks, and  hence how he is likely to govern. Barring this, the selection of the vice-president, despite all the hype, is relatively a formality. The top of the ticket is what really counts the most.

By selecting Biden, Obama has shown once again that he is capable of adapting his positions to do what it takes to win, an essential ingredient for governing in partisan-ridden Washington. The selection also signifies a transition for the Obama campaign from doing what it took to win the primaries (taking on the Clinton machinery) to doing what it takes to win the general election (appearing centrist and taking on the Republicans). Despite all the accusations of Obama’s lack of experience, he has proven once again, that he can be a very astute politician, another attribute that will come in handy when trying to get things done if he were to come to power.  Ironically (given that he beat the Bill Clinton at his own game), it appears as though Senator Obama has modeled himself on Bill Clinton (themes of Change, Hope, Washington is broken etc.) and it is highly possible that he would govern like Clinton himself (if he comes to power).

The choice of Biden appears to have complicated John McCain’s task of selecting a VP. Since the Obama-Biden announcement, Republicans have done everything from labeling the Democratic ticket as the Liberal Dream team, referring to Biden as Obama’s Cheney (ouch!), to suggesting a McCain Lieberman ticket, to kissing up to Hillary voters, to saying that the choice is an admission of Obama’s weakness — his lack of experience.

With Karl Rove’s proteges in charge of his campaign, McCain’s choice is also likely to be a very calculated one – one that appeases the party’s base, addresses his self-proclaimed weakness on economic matters, and ensures a decent match-up against Biden in the debates. It would be way too risky for McCain to select an inexperienced politician to match up against Biden in the debates. Going by these criteria, Mitt Romney appears to be the most likely choice (if you recall the primaries, all his positions were completely flexible).

(How many houses does a McCain-Romney ticket own? 🙂

p.s: The grand plan to text message supporters of the choice before the media picked up on the announcement turned out to be a flop. In this Twitter age, it is not in the least bit surprising that the news leaked. For an otherwise tightly run campaign, this was a setback of sorts, though the attempted stunt does have some benefits for the campaign.

I happened to watch live the back to back one on one sessions of the two Presidential candidates with Rev Rick Warren at the Saddleback Church, CA. Senator Obama took questions for an hour followed by Senator McCain. The format was interesting in a number of ways. Firstly, the questions were quite different from those asked by conventional TV channels. There were hardly any follow on questions (which has its positives and negatives). On the flip side, the person who goes second has a huge advantage (as was suspiciously evident in Senator McCain’s urgency to respond to questions, though one can probably give him the benefit of the doubt). Besides, the setting was an evangelical Church and understandably the crowd was mostly pro-McCain (as confirmed by the frequency of the applause for him when compared to those for Obama).

This event clearly showed the contrast between the two candidates. Senator Obama’s responses were thoughtful, nuanced and often long-winded. McCain on the other hand was mostly “cut and dry” in his responses. Overall the night belonged to Senator McCain. He seemed better prepared (perhaps because he went in second). He faced and spoke directly to the audience and intermittently addressed Rev. Warren. He came across as self-assured and confident. His short and crisp answers interspersed with anecdotes really helped him connect with the casual viewer.

Senator Obama on the other hand almost never looked at the audience. Unfortunately, he rarely looked at Rev Warren either except when listening to the question! The format didn’t quite suit his style. He simply didn’t look in control or portray the authority and self-confidence expected of a Presidential candidate. In this day and age where elections are mostly won on TV and public opinion is shaped largely by TV pundits and bloggers, Obama put up a relatively weaker show. Even on the humor front, Senator Obama was outshone by his opponent.

Some of Senator Obama’s responses, like for instance, his response to the question of Evil were intelligent and thoughtful in comparison to Senator McCain (who was all George Bush on this one). On the other hand, Senator Obama was needlessly long winded (and seemingly evasive) on topics such as abortion. If Senator McCain can perform similarly in the upcoming debates, he could be a tougher opponent than the Obama team ever imagined.

Check out Rev Warren’s post-event interview

Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have finally decided to temporarily bury the hatchet and go after their common enemy, President Musharraf. After few attempts on his life and playing a cat and mouse game with the terrorists (for several years) while simultaneously keep the democratic process at bay, Pakistan’s magic man Musharraf enters a new seemingly challenging phase in his political life. This time like many other times in the past seems like the end of the road for him.

Will he survive? Will he take a golden parachute and move to his house in Florida (rumor has it that he owns a cool house in Florida) or will the Sheikhs in Saudi Arabia swap Nawaz Sharif’s apartment to host Musharraf? Will he pull a fast one and check mate his rivals? Will he escalate violence in Kashmir as a temporary distraction? Will Bush and co. fight hard to keep him around or will the abandon him when he most needs them and indulge in tough talk after the fact (a la Georgia)? What role with General Ashfaq Kiyani play in all this?

Getting rid of Musharraf will end army involvement in Pakistani politics at least for the moment. As a result it will raise a semblance of hope for a truly democratic government. However, the reality is that there seems to be little hope of any stability whatsoever post-Musharraf. The current government could fall any day. It is only a matter of time before Nawaz Sharief does the needful to bring down the Zardari government though at the moment he seems more focused on revenge against his arch enemy President Musharraf.

While it is impossible to have sympathy of any sort for someone who has been a dictator (with the blessings of the west), it is very much a scary thought to have a nuclear power with an unstable democratic government and terrorists champing at the bit. Under the circumstances the US finds itself in an enviable predicament (after spending billions over the years) of having to dump Musharraf but with no reliable, committed allies at the helm of the current government as backup.

p.s: There is plenty of uncertainty ahead. The cast and characters are lined up. There is suspense and melodrama ahead. Who are the winners and losers ahead? Right now, anything is possible. Its only a matter of time. The recent independence day celebrations were more like an annoying item number to temporarily stall the action sequences. The current state of Pakistan is like the interval phase in a Bollywood film.